Learn how to forecast macroeconomic accounts and design an economic program for a case study country. In this macroeconomics course, you will improve your skills in macroeconomic policy analysis and learn to design an economic and financial program, using real economic data. The financial programming exercise simulates what IMF (International Monetary Fund) desk economists routinely do in their country surveillance and program work.
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In the first part of the course (modules 1–7), you will analyze the economic outlook of a country case and then help to build a baseline scenario — namely, a set of projections for the main macroeconomic sectors (real, external, government and monetary) that reflects the analyst’s best guess of what will happen to the economy in the coming year, assuming no policy change.
In the second part (modules 8–10), you will learn and discuss how macroeconomic policies can be used to address poor performance and reduce macroeconomic imbalances. We will illustrate the workings of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies by using a simple Keynesian model of an open economy. In the final module you will design an IMF–supported lending program scenario for our country case.
What you'll learn:
- How to construct projections of the real, external, government, and monetary sectors under the assumption of unchanged policy
- How to generate sectoral forecasts that are consistent from accounting and behavioral perspectives
- How to use a macroeconomic model to analyze the effects of policy changes
- How to identify and appraise the economic vulnerabilities inherent in an emerging market economy
- How to prepare a macroeconomic policy program scenario
Prerequisites
Prior knowledge or completion of Financial Programming and Policies, Part 1 is recommended.
